Monsoon arrives in Kerala 8 days before schedule

The monsoon has arrived in Kerala today, eight days ahead of its usual onset date of June 1, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday. This year's onset in Kerala is the earliest in the last 16 years.

According to the IMD, the monsoon has not just arrived in Kerala but also in parts of Karnataka, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu and Mizoram. It is progressing rapidly and is expected to reach parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, the remaining areas of Tamil Nadu, as well as parts of West Bengal and Sikkim within the next 2–3 days. The last time the monsoon arrived this early in Kerala was in 2009 and 2001, when it reached the state on May 23.

Normally, the monsoon makes its onset over the southern coast on June 1. However, the actual date depends on the prevailing conditions in the atmosphere and the sea. This year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) expected an early arrival around May 27 (+/-4 days) since the conditions were quite favourable.

The southwest monsoon is extremely crucial for India’s agrarian economy, since it provides over 75 per cent of the annual rains over India in just four months from June to September. Once it sets in over Kerala, the monsoon takes over a month to cover the rest of the country and completes its journey by July 8, marking the beginning of the four-month season.

Last year, the monsoon made its onset on May 31, covered the country by July 2, and ended the season with excess rains—108 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

In a major relief, the prevailing conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which tend to significantly affect the monsoon, are also neutral and likely to remain so during the season, ruling out any El Niño formation. With favourable conditions, the IMD is confident of a good monsoon this year, highlighting that the forecast probability of deficient or below-normal rains is just 11 percent.