Less Cold Wave, Above-Normal Temperatures Predicted This Winter

The streak of abnormally high temperatures continues, with India facing another warm December ahead. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-normal temperatures over most parts of the country. This follows India’s third-warmest November in 123 years behind only 1979 and 2023.

According to the winter outlook released by the weather department, both day and night temperatures are expected to remain higher-than-usual over most parts of India, not just in December, but for the entire winter season from December to February. However, south-peninsula may prove to be an exception.

“There is a high probability of higher temperatures this season, especially in the core-cold zone, including plains of Northwest India and Central India. The number of cold wave days are also expected to be below normal," said IMD chief Dr M Mohapatra. Normally the cold wave persists for 5-6 days over Punjab, Haryana, UP, Bihar, and Rajasthan known for harsh winter conditions, but this year it is likely to be less.

This comes as 2024 remains on track to be the warmest year globally. India experienced its warmest October since 1901 with monthly mean temperatures nearly 1.2℃ above normal. November also ended up among the third-warmest Novembers in last 123 years, just behind 1979 and 2023. The average monthly temperature was 0.8℃ above-normal.

It was exceptionally warm for Northwest India which remained largely dry with no rains in the absence of western disturbances. None of the three WDs which hit the Jammu and Kashmir region, impacted the plains, resulting in a 1.37℃ rise in monthly-mean temperatures. The rainfall deficit was nearly 54.5 per cent for India in November, while the shortfall in Northwest India was even higher at -79 per cent.

Meanwhile, the number of cyclonic disturbances developing over the adjoining seas was also less. Normally, November gets the maximum number of cyclonic disturbances, but this year, there were just two low pressure systems over Bay of Bengal. One of them was feeble, while the other one intensified into Cyclone Fengal that triggered extremely heavy rains over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

According to IMD, the southern peninsula is likely to continue receiving good rains this month, as the northeast monsoon is forecasted to remain active. But Northwest India is likely to experience less rain, and thus higher temperatures. Similar trend has been observed over northeast and eastern India which has consistently recorded the warmest Novembers over the last three years.