Political Battleground Heats up in Tamilnadu

Polling being in a single phase on April 19 for the 39 Lok Sabha seats from the southern state of Tamil Nadu, it is a  three-cornered contest between BJP-led NDA allies, INDIA-led front including the ruling DMK of Chief Minister M.K. Stalin and the AIADMK.

As of now, it  appears to be favouring the INDIA front though the BJP led alliance spearheaded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is leading a high powered campaign aiming to capture over 400 seats in the 543 –member Lok Sabha.

The upcoming Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha Election 2024 is poised to be a pivotal event, with 39 parliamentary constituencies at stake with the electoral landscape of the state  set for a significant transformation. For the electorate and the contestants it is indeed a long wait for the results would be out only on May Four.

Tamil Nadu, known for its vibrant political culture, has 39 Lok Sabha seats, with 32 unreserved and seven reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates. In the 2019 elections, the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance secured a resounding victory, winning 38 out of the 39 seats. This landslide win underscored the dominance of regional players over national parties in Tamil Nadu’s political arena.

The political dynamics of Tamil Nadu have undergone notable shifts ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. With the DMK aligning with the INDIA bloc and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) losing the support of the AIADMK, the state’s electoral landscape has witnessed significant recalibration. Unlike in many other states, where the BJP and Congress often dominate the electoral narrative, Tamil Nadu’s political battleground is primarily shaped by regional powerhouses.

The election schedule reveals that polling will be conducted across all 39 constituencies in a single phase on April 19, 2024. This consolidated approach reflects the Election Commission’s efforts to streamline the electoral process and ensure efficient management of resources. The constituencies encompass a diverse range of regions, each with its unique socio-political fabric, making Tamil Nadu’s electoral landscape rich and dynamic.

In the previous general election, the DMK-Congress alliance secured an overwhelming victory, winning 38 out of 39 seats. This marked a remarkable turnaround from the 2014 results, where the alliance failed to secure a single seat in Tamil Nadu. Conversely, the AIADMK-led alliance, which included the BJP, managed to win just one seat, highlighting the waning influence of national parties in the state.

Ahead of the 2024 polls, the DMK has once again formed an alliance with the Congress and Kamal Haasan’s MNM, underscoring the significance of strategic alliances in Tamil Nadu’s political landscape. Notably, Tamil Nadu has historically been a challenging terrain for the BJP, with limited success in past elections.

As the state gears up for the Lok Sabha elections, political parties are intensifying their campaign efforts, aiming to sway the electorate with their respective agendas and promises. With regional players taking center stage, the Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha Election 2024 promises to be a closely watched and fiercely contested affair, shaping the future trajectory of the state’s politics.

The DMK won 23 of the 38 seats in 2019 and none in 2014. Meanwhile, the AIADMK bagged one in 2019 and 37 in 2014. The BJP won none in 2019 and one in 2014. The Congress won 8 in 2019 and none in 2014.  Tamil Nadu will play a crucial role to fulfill the NDA goal of winning over 400 seats. The BJP has never won an election in Tamil Nadu on its own, and its vote share has not touched the double-digit mark.

DMK finalised a seat-sharing deal with the Congress and Kamal Haasan's Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM). The Congress will contest on nine seats in Tamil Nadu and one  in Puducherry.

With the AIADMK being a divided house between E. Palaniswamy and  O Panneerselvam, the going seems tough for these factions and neither being with BJP, the going does appear tough for the saffron party though its leader Annamalai, a former IPS officer and an engineering graduate from one of the leading institutions PSG College of Technology, Coimbatore and an IIM degree holder is hard at work mobilising the young voter in the state.

After BJP-led NDA parted ways with the AIADMK, it is allies in Tamil Nadu are Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and Desiya Morpakku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK).

However, the DMK which is in the INDIA front has allocated nine seats to its regional allies. They are Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK-2), CPM-2, CPI-2, IUML-1, Marumalai Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK-1)and Kongunadu Makal Desiya Katchi (KMDK-1).

Actor turned politician Kamal Hassan whose Maakal Needhi Maiam (MNM) is not contesting the elections but supporting the DMK has been promised a Rajya Sabha seat.

Tamil Nadu  which is the tenth largest Indian state is one of the key states in the Lok Sabha elections and since 1967, none of the national parties – Congress and BJP – has been able to gain a foothold in the state.

Congress lost out to the DMK led by late C.N. Annadurai and the two national parties have been painted as pro-Hindi parties and it was the language issue that led to the Congress defeat in 1967 and the growth of the Dravidian parties in the state.

The state also has the unique record of film stars playing a key role in the politics of the region and has had two of them being Chief Ministers – M.G. Ramachandran (MGR) and J. Jayalalithaa who was affectionately known as Amma or Puratchi Thalaivi or Supreme Leader.

MGR and Jayalalithaa led the AIADMK which broke off from the DMK led by late M.Karunanidhi and now with neither Karunanidhi or Jayalalithaa on the political scene, the mantel has now fallen on the shoulders of Karunanidhi’s son Stalin while Jayalalithaa led AIADMK has become a faction ridden party.

Ironically it was Karunanidhi’s scripts for films starring MGR that led to the rise of the film star on the state’s political scenario and the split led to a large number of DMK supporters switching sides and the report now has it that many of these supporters are returning to the DMK which only enhances the electoral prospects of the INDIA front in the state.

It is a state where people belonging to all religions live harmoniously. Islam was introduced due to the influence from Arab region and the majority of the muslims are native Tamils who converted on the influence of Cheraman Perumal. Unlike from other parts of India, nearly 90% of the muslims in the state speak Tamil rather than Urdu as their mother tongue. Arabic inscriptions from the ninth century CE at Kayalpatnam, detail about endowments given to the mosques by Pandyas. The earliest literary work in the community was the Palsanthmalai from the 13th century with the most popular being the epic Seerapuranam by Umaru Pulavar in the 17th century.

As of 2011, Islam is the third largest religion in the state with 4,229,479 followers, making up 5.86% of the population. The Kilakarai Jumma Masjid, built in the 7th century, has prominent Dravidian architectural characteristics and is one of the oldest mosques in India. Erwadi houses an 840-year-old mosque and the annual santhanakoodu festival held during the Islamic month of Dhul Qidah attracts people of all faiths from different regions. Nagore Dargah where the urs festival is celebrated every year attracts pilgrims from both sufi Islam and Hinduism.

Given this kind of religious harmony in the state, any attempt to secure votes on communal grounds would not be successful in the state and has not been so far.

Recently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid the foundation stone for the development projects worth nearly Rs. 20,000 crore and opened the new terminal at Trichy airport. He also heaped praises on AIADMK stalwarts MG Ramachandran and J Jayalalithaa during his recent visit to the state. "MGR gave quality education and healthcare in Tamil Nadu which is why his popularity was unmatched among the poor. The way the current DMK government works is an insult to MGR and Jayalalithaa," he said.

But, what has to be seen is how much this carries among the electorate considering that literacy rate in Tamil Nadu has seen upward trend and is 80.09 per cent as per latest population census. Of that, male literacy stands at 86.77 per cent while female literacy is at 73.44 per cent.

Taking all these factors into account and the total electorate being 62.6 million with male being 30.9 million and female being 31.94 million and 7,190 transgenders, it sure is an interesting battle of the ballot.